Return to authoritarianism

Sisi’s ascent to the presidency marked a return to the Mubarak era’s autocratic style of government and a defeat for the democratic aspirations that had helped drive the uprising in 2011. Under Sisi’s leadership the Egyptian security services cracked down on all forms of dissent, detaining and torturing perceived political opponents by the thousands. A new House of Representatives was elected in 2015 in elections that many observers saw as marred by low turnout and government interference in favour of pro-Sisi candidates. Seated in 2016, the new body passed dozens of laws restricting political activity and formalizing the government’s control over protests, the media, and nongovernmental organizations.

As president, Sisi struggled to realize the promises of economic stability and security that had been central to his candidacy. Large-scale infrastructure projects, such as an $8 billion expansion of the Suez Canal completed in 2015, galvanized public enthusiasm but did little to improve living standards. That same year Sisi announced a project to build a new capital just east of Cairo to house the government and ease the overpopulation and congestion of Cairo. In January 2019 he inaugurated both the largest cathedral in the Middle East and the largest mosque in Egypt in the tentatively named New Administrative Capital (NAC). A plan was announced that same month to move some 50,000 government employees to the new city in 2020 (although that plan was later delayed to 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic). A three-year $12 billion loan package from the IMF in 2016 helped Egypt close its budget deficits but included austerity measures such as new taxes and cuts to consumer subsidies that many Egyptians relied on for basic goods.

Meanwhile, the Egyptian military continued to battle Islamist insurgents around the country. Fighting was especially fierce in the Sinai Peninsula, where attacks by a local extremist group increased in frequency and brutality after the group pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant in 2014.

In March 2018 Sisi stood for another term as president in a lopsided election that served more as an affirmation of Sisi’s status as an all-powerful president than as a genuine democratic contest. In the months leading up to the election, several credible candidates were arrested or disqualified for procedural reasons, leaving Sisi to face only token opposition in the form of Mousa Mostafa Mousa, a little-known figure who had endorsed Sisi before entering the race himself. As expected, Sisi won an overwhelming victory, taking more than 97 percent of the vote.

In April 2019 the parliament overwhelmingly approved a set of constitutional amendments that would empower the presidency and further entrench the military in policy making. One amendment extended the presidential term to six years but reaffirmed a limit of two consecutive terms. Another amendment specified that Sisi, already in his second term, could run for another six-year term in 2024. The amendments also reinstituted a vice presidency, allowed the president to appoint top judges in the judiciary, and established an upper chamber (Senate) in the legislature with one-third of its members appointed by the president. The defense minister, meanwhile, was made subject to the approval of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. The amendments were put to a nationwide referendum only days after passing the legislature and were approved by 89 percent of the voters.

Elections for the Senate took place in August and September 2020. Several factors, including the global COVID-19 pandemic, hardship getting to the polls, and a boycott of the election, led to extremely low turnout—fewer than 15 percent of eligible voters participated in the first round of elections. On August 26 the election commission announced that it would refer 54 million Egyptians for prosecution for failing to vote, voting being compulsory under Egyptian law.

With payoffs from Egypt’s massive infrastructure projects still unmaterialized in 2021, economic stability became even more precarious amid issues in global supply chains. Inflation soared in 2022, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, which severely disrupted food, energy, and tourism markets in Egypt.

In a bid to enhance the country’s political stability in a time of economic crisis, Sisi called in April for a national dialogue between representatives of the country’s major political factions. A formal process, organized by Sisi’s government, got underway in July. Included in the dialogue were liberal and Islamist parties in the opposition; the Muslim Brotherhood, however, was not invited to participate.