The third administration of Nawaz Sharif

The government of Imran Khan

Under Khan, Pakistan saw significant developments in its foreign relations. Just weeks into his premiership, the United States decided to withhold $300 million in promised military aid, saying that the country had not done enough to fight terrorism. Relations improved, however, and the aid was restored the following year, after Pakistan made successful efforts to pressure the Taliban in Afghanistan into peace talks. Afghanistan’s central government initially thanked Pakistan for its efforts, but diplomatic relations soured after comments by Khan undermined the authority of the Afghan central government.

Tensions with India over Kashmir came to a head in February 2019, after a suicide bombing there resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian security personnel. When a militant group believed to operate illegally in Pakistan took credit for the attack, the Indian Air Force conducted air strikes in Pakistan for the first time in five decades. Though India claimed it had destroyed a large training camp belonging to the militant group, Pakistan denied that any such camp had existed and said that India had struck an empty field instead. The next day Pakistan shot down two fighter jets from India and captured a pilot, who was soon returned to India. Despite the skirmishes, the two countries seemed to avoid further escalating the situation. Pakistan, meanwhile, began a crackdown on militants, arresting suspected militants, shutting down a large number of religious schools, and announcing its intent to update existing laws according to international standards.

Meanwhile, Khan faced a looming debt crisis. Pakistan’s debt commitments had ballooned over the years preceding his term in office, not least due to the CPEC project financed by loans from China; Pakistan’s first repayments were due to begin in 2019. Khan had campaigned on promises of increased welfare and against seeking intervention from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose lending conditions often required austerity measures and whose previous dozen packages to Pakistan had failed to solve the country’s macroeconomic problems. Indeed, he began his premiership seeking aid from allies rather than from the IMF. In October 2018, having failed to secure foreign aid from allies, Pakistan requested $12 billion in emergency lending from the IMF. Khan continued to seek foreign aid, however, and reached investment arrangements with China in December and with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in January 2019.

With the advent of the global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Khan was reluctant to implement a lockdown on the country’s already ailing economy. In Sindh, the province most affected by the pandemic and the only province whose government was not led by either the PTI or an allied party, a strict lockdown was implemented on March 23. As the pandemic worsened across the country, a nationwide lockdown was eventually imposed at the beginning of April until early May, when restrictions began to be lifted in phases.

Opposition to Khan and the PTI flared in late 2020, fueled by allegations of corruption and economic discontent. In September the PML-N, the PPP, and other parties in the opposition formed a coalition, known as the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), which sought to increase the independence of civilian government from the military establishment. The PDM staged protests and rallies—some addressed by Nawaz Sharif, calling by video from exile. With opposition sustained into the following year, Khan sought a vote of confidence in March 2021. He narrowly survived, but the PDM had boycotted the vote.

In October Khan fell out with the military establishment after withholding approval of a new chief for the Inter-Service Intelligence directorate. He had hoped to persuade the military to reappoint the outgoing head, whom he considered politically favourable, but the unusually public spat merely served to stoke animosity with the military.

Pakistan’s standing with its foreign allies began to slump, meanwhile, as its government took increasingly idiosyncratic positions. Officials took a largely optimistic stance toward the Afghan Taliban, which returned to power in mid-2021 amid the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. It was hoped that the takeover would bring stability to Pakistan’s border and enhance cooperation between the countries in containing the TTP and other militants that presented a threat to Pakistan’s security. Pakistani officials lobbied foreign powers to incentivize the Taliban toward moderation and inclusivity. The international community’s patience for the Taliban grew thin, however, as the new regime defaulted toward the style of governance that it had first implemented in the 1990s.

In late February 2022, just hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, Khan attended a long-planned meeting with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin as much of the world was seeking to isolate the bellicose leader. Khan had hoped that the meeting, which bucked Pakistan’s traditional allies in the West, would open new avenues of foreign support for Pakistan.

With the economy in shambles and Khan’s loss of support from both the military establishment and the international community, the opposition pounced, moving in March to hold a vote of no confidence. In the period leading up to the vote, several members of Khan’s party and coalition announced that they would not support him in the vote. Despite efforts by Khan to prevent a vote from taking place, he was removed from office on April 10.

The government of Shehbaz Sharif

Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s brother and leader of the PML-N, became prime minister the following day. But his premiership proved tumultuous from the start, as the economy continued to worsen, further exacerbated by extreme weather during the summer monsoon. Heavy rainfall and a severe heat wave that caused Hindu Kush–Himalayan glaciers to melt led to widespread flooding. The flooding left about 1,700 people dead, tens of millions displaced, and, at its peak, one-third of the country’s landmass underwater.

The government’s ineptitude at addressing the economy or mitigating the flood’s devastation aided a comeback by Imran Khan’s party. In a surprise landslide victory, the PTI won 15 of 20 seats in the July legislative elections of Punjab, the country’s largest province and a traditional stronghold for Sharif’s PML-N party.

As the PTI gained momentum, however, Khan faced a slew of legal challenges, and the party’s fortunes began to reverse. In October, while on interim bail for charges related to a speech he had given in August and for allegedly having received foreign funding for his party, Khan was temporarily barred from holding public office after the election commission alleged he had concealed assets. Heightened tensions in the country were on full display in early November when an attempt was made on Khan’s life, at which time he sustained injuries to one of his legs. He made repeated assertions that a military officer was responsible for the attempt, claims that the military dismissed in May 2023 as “highly irresponsible and baseless.” When Khan was taken into custody days later, supporters took to the streets and attacked military installations and government buildings. The PTI was subsequently subjected to a crackdown, and dozens of party members defected.

Meanwhile, violence increased in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as talks between the government and the TTP failed to progress. The attacks largely targeted security forces in the region, and in January 2023 an attack on a police compound killed more than 100 people. In July an attack by the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP; also called ISIS-K or IS-K), which opposes the TTP, killed more than 60 civilians at a political rally. That attack alarmed many observers, who believed it indicated that the fighting in neighbouring Afghanistan between the ISKP and the Afghan Taliban had spilled over into northwestern Pakistan.

As the end of the parliamentary term approached in August, Sharif and his government resigned three days early. His handing the reins to a caretaker government allowed elections to be delayed beyond their original set date in October. Although Sharif was expected to retain his parliamentary seat in the elections, he intended for his brother Nawaz Sharif to return to power as prime minister.