An emboldened Erdoğan and the AKP face resistance

In 2011 the AKP campaigned for parliamentary elections on a pledge to replace Turkey’s existing constitution. In June the AKP won by large margins in the elections, securing a strong majority in the Grand National Assembly and another term as prime minister for Erdoğan. However, it fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to unilaterally write a new constitution.

A new round of peace negotiations between Turkey and the PKK was announced in December 2012. From early on, the new talks showed more promise than the ones that had ended in 2011. In March 2013 the PKK released eight Turkish hostages, and PKK leader Öcalan, still in Turkish custody, announced his support for a cease-fire. The cease-fire ended in 2015 after talks had stalled.

In early June 2013 Turkey saw an unprecedented display of discontent after a small demonstration in Istanbul over plans to convert a public park into a shopping mall was violently broken up by police. The incident sparked an outpouring of anger against the Erdoğan- and AKP-led government. Demonstrations against economic inequality as well as against the government’s perceived authoritarianism and religious conservatism quickly spread through the country and were, in many instances, met by riot police firing tear gas and rubber bullets. Erdoğan responded defiantly, dismissing the protesters as thugs and vandals and holding rallies for AKP supporters. Later that year, prosecutors who were involved in the Ergenekon trial, and thought to be members of Gülen’s Hizmet movement, announced a corruption probe of members of Erdoğan’s inner circle, pitting the AKP and the Hizmet movement against one another.

Erdoğan was prohibited by AKP rules from seeking another term as prime minister, and in August 2014 he sought the largely ceremonial role of president in order to remain in public life. Ahmet Davutoğlu took over the post of prime minister that same month. Davutoğlu, an AKP member who had previously served for five years as foreign minister under Erdoğan, was widely expected to follow the course set by his predecessor in both domestic and foreign affairs.

In a parliamentary election in June 2015, the AKP fell short of an absolute majority for the first time in its history, receiving just 41 percent of the vote. The results were largely seen as a rebuke to Erdoğan, who had made it known that he would seek constitutional changes that would expand the powers of the presidency. The setback was a brief one for the AKP, however. Negotiations over the summer failed to produce a governing coalition, triggering a snap parliamentary election on November 1. The AKP won easily, regaining its majority and falling just short of the number of seats needed to unilaterally call a referendum on expanding the powers of the presidency.

AKP under pressure: failed coup attempt, crackdown on dissidents, and economic crisis

On the night of July 15, 2016, a small faction within the army attempted to launch a coup against the AKP-led government, deploying tanks and troops to the streets of Ankara and Istanbul and seizing facilities, including television stations and bridges. In a statement, the coup plotters accused the government of eroding the democratic order and damaging the rule of law in Turkey. The coup was poorly planned, though, with no backing from the public and only partial support within the military, and it began to falter almost as soon as it started. Erdoğan, who had been vacationing on the Mediterranean coast, rushed back to Istanbul, using social media to quickly rally his supporters to confront coup plotters in the streets. The coup plotters were soon overwhelmed by loyal military units and civilians, and by morning the government was firmly back in control. Nearly 300 people, mostly civilians, had been killed in confrontations. Ironically, the coup attempt strengthened Erdoğan’s hand in suppressing opposition and dissent. He quickly pointed fingers at Gülen and his Hizmet movement—soon after dubbed “Fethullah Terror Organization (FETO)” by the government and subsequently by the Turkish press. Over the years that followed, Erdoğan conducted a wide purge, arresting tens of thousands of people and removing more than 100,000 people from their jobs—including police, soldiers, academics, and civil servants—over suspicions that they might have been sympathetic to the coup. The connection of many of them to the Hizmet movement was dubious.

In April 2017, voters narrowly approved a referendum that dramatically expanded the powers of the presidency. Under the amendments, the president would become head of government as well as head of state and wield increased authority to make governmental appointments and pass laws by decree, and the post of prime minister would be eliminated. The changes were set to be implemented after the next elections, originally scheduled to take place in November 2019. Early elections were called, however, and were held on June 24, 2018. Prior to the elections, the AKP entered into an alliance with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). The alliance collectively received a majority of the vote in the parliamentary contest, and Erdoğan won an outright majority in the presidential contest. The constitutional changes were then implemented in July 2018 with the inauguration of the new government.

Erdoğan’s new powers were greeted by an economic downturn sparked by a currency crisis. The political instability of recent years had introduced a number of vulnerabilities. Combined with populist economic measures, including an ambitious boom in public works projects and Erdoğan’s open opposition to raising interest rates, a financial downturn was already growing by the time of his reelection. Investor confidence was undermined further in July when Erdoğan appointed his son-in-law as the country’s finance minister. Just weeks later the central bank declined to raise interest rates despite market pressures to do so. Then, on August 10, the United States announced tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum exports. The lira took a hit with each event and lost a quarter of its value by mid-August. On September 13 the central bank relieved some of the tension by hiking interest rates, and the value of the lira slowly improved. Still, the crisis caused a lingering slowdown in economic growth, and by 2019 the Turkish economy had entered into recession.

Soaring prices became the central issue as the March 31, 2019, municipal elections approached. Because municipalities in Turkey are responsible for administering many basic services, the elections were important not only for the ability of the AKP to implement its national political agenda, but the outcome was also expected to reflect public dissatisfaction with the rising costs of living. In the months leading up to the elections, the AKP-led government in several cities began to set up stalls to sell produce at cost. Meanwhile, Erdoğan, campaigning for the party, blamed rising prices on foreign interference and pledged to conduct crackdowns on wholesalers. Despite these efforts, the AKP lost its hold on five of Turkey’s six largest cities, including Ankara and Istanbul.

Amid the financial crisis, apparent corruption, and a devastating electoral loss for the AKP, discontentment with the direction of the country under Erdoğan began seeping into the party itself. Among those who criticized his leadership after the municipal elections were former president Gül and former prime minister Davutoğlu.Later that year Davutoğlu formed the Future Party (Gelecek Partisi), a conservative party that sought to reverse Turkey’s trend toward autocracy under Erdoğan and to return the government to a parliamentary system. Ali Babacan—another heavyweight from the AKP and a rival of Davutoğlu—founded another party, the Democracy and Progress Party (Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi; DEVA), in March 2020 with aims similar to those of the Future Party.

While Turkey was one of a handful of countries to register economic growth in the first year of the global COVID-19 pandemic, its financial crisis grew worse. In November, after the lira had lost nearly a third of its value since January, Erdoğan replaced the governor of the central bank, and the country began loosening its grip on finance. His son-in-law resigned from his post as finance minister that same month and was replaced by a market-friendly technocrat. As the new governor of the central bank hiked interest rates, however, he too was replaced, in March 2021.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan faced backlash for tightening his control over academic freedom. On New Year’s Day, 2021, he appointed a party loyalist with marred academic credentials to oversee one of the country’s top universities, whose long-standing self-governance had until that point allowed its operations to remain independent of government intervention. Despite protests against the appointment, which were met with a harsh response and drew attention nationwide, Erdoğan continued to exert his influence on the university by issuing directions for his appointee to implement regarding the university’s administration. The protests persisted throughout the spring term and into the summer term, and on July 15 Erdoğan removed his appointee but did not give any indication that he would restore the university’s independence.