demography

demography, statistical study of human populations, especially with reference to size and density, distribution, and vital statistics (births, marriages, deaths, etc.). Contemporary demographic concerns include the “population explosion,” the interplay between population and economic development, the effects of birth control, urban congestion, illegal immigration, and labour force statistics. For a discussion of the objects of demographic study, see population (in biology and physical anthropology). See also census.

The roots of statistical demography may be found in the work of the Englishman John Graunt; his work Natural and Political Observations . . . Made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662) examines the weekly records of deaths and baptisms (the “bills of mortality”) dating back to the end of the 16th century. In search of statistical regularities, Graunt made an estimate of the male-female ratios at birth and death-birth ratios in London and rural communities. His most celebrated contribution was his construction of the first mortality table; by analyzing birth and death rates he was able to estimate roughly the number of men currently of military age, the number of women of childbearing age, the total number of families, and even the population of London. Another such study was undertaken by Johann Süssmilch, whose Die Göttliche Ordnung (1741; “The Divine Order”) analyzed the populations of 1,056 parishes in Brandenburg and various cities and provinces of Prussia. Süssmilch constructed several mortality tables, most notably the first such table for the whole population of Prussia (1765).

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In 18th-century Europe, the development of life insurance and growing attention to public health produced an increased awareness of the significance of mortality studies. Civil registries of significant public events (births, deaths, and marriages) began in the 19th century to supplant church registries. Censuses of the population also developed during the 19th century.

For most of the 19th century, demographic studies continued to emphasize the phenomenon of mortality; it was not until demographers noted that a considerable decline of fertility had taken place in the industrialized countries during the second half of the 19th century, that they began to study fertility and reproduction with as much interest as they studied mortality. The phenomenon of differential fertility, with its implications about selection and more particularly about the evolution of intelligence, evoked widespread interest as shown in Charles Darwin’s theories and in the works of Francis Galton. During the period between the two world wars, demography took on a broader, interdisciplinary character. In 1928 the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population was founded.

In spite of increasing sophistication in the analysis of statistics and the proliferation of research institutes, periodicals, and international organizations devoted to the science of demographics, the basis for most demographic research continues to lie in population censuses and the registration of vital statistics. Even the most meticulously gathered census is not completely accurate, however, and birth, death, and marriage statistics—based on certificates drawn up by local authorities—are accurate mostly in countries with a long tradition of registry.