Challenge to Bashir’s rule and the 2019 military coup
The most significant threat to date to Bashir’s decades-long reign began in December 2018. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy, Sudanese citizens took to the streets to express their discontent. The protests, which were initially about the rising prices and shortages of bread and other commodities and about proposals to discontinue certain subsidies (spurred by IMF recommendations), soon evolved into anti-government demonstrations accompanied by calls for Bashir to step down. During one of the first large protests, held in ʿAṭbarah (Atbara) on December 19, the local headquarters for the NCP was set on fire by demonstrators. Protests were soon seen in other cities and continued in the following weeks, sometimes turning violent when demonstrators and security forces clashed. In January 2019, as protests continued, a rally was held in support of Bashir, who vowed that he would stay in power until he was voted out of office in an election.
With the protests showing no sign of abating, Bashir declared a state of emergency on February 22. He dissolved the central and state governments and, in the following days, appointed military leaders to the state governorships and named a new prime minister . Bashir also banned unauthorized rallies. Protests continued, nonetheless, and, while Bashir made additional gestures, such as stepping down as head of the NCP, reshuffling his cabinet, and promising to hold a dialogue with the opposition and implement reforms, he refused to step down from the presidency.
The largest demonstration since the protests began was held on April 6, the anniversary of the uprising that overthrew Nimeiri in 1985. Protesters marched to the compound in Khartoum that housed the military headquarters, where they began a sit-in that lasted for days. Although security forces attempted to use violence to disperse the crowds, some segments of the military moved to protect the protesters, signalling a fissure in the armed forces regarding support for the regime.
On April 11, 2019, Bashir was overthrown in a military coup and placed under arrest. The military announced that it had dissolved the government, suspended the constitution, and planned to create a military council that would lead a transitional government for two years, after which elections would be held for a new civilian government. Protesters, while happy that Bashir had been removed from office, rejected any plans that included a military-led transition and continued their sit-in, demanding a civilian transitional government.
Transition
In the months that followed, talks between civilian groups and military leaders regarding the composition of a new transitional government continued, with periods of progress interspersed with talks collapsing over disagreements. Demonstrations and strikes to keep pressure on the military-led transition council continued as well. The military response was at times criticized for being heavy-handed, most notably with what came to be known as the June 3 massacre, which occurred when forces cleared demonstrators from one of their primary spots in Khartoum; more than 100 people are thought to have been killed. The incident led to the AU suspending Sudan’s membership in the organization.
With ongoing mediation efforts, led by Ethiopia and the AU, a power-sharing agreement, known as the constitutional declaration, between an alliance of civilian groups named the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military was finally signed in August 2019. On August 21, 2019, a transitional Sovereignty Council, comprising military and civilian representatives, took power; it was expected to rule until democratic elections, scheduled for 2022, were held. Per the constitutional declaration, a military officer was to lead the council for the first 21 months, after which a civilian would lead. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who had been leading the military-led transition council, was named president. Abdalla Hamdok, selected by the civilian groups’ alliance, was appointed prime minister, and he formed a cabinet on September 5. Citing the civilian-led government now in place, the AU lifted its suspension of Sudan the following day.
Bashir, meanwhile, had been charged with corruption-related acts and was convicted in December 2019. He still faced other charges, including those in connection with the death of demonstrators protesting against his rule in 2019.
Tension, protests, and the 2021 military coup
The working relationship between the members of the Sovereignty Council was tenuous, reflecting their sometimes competing interests as well as general ideological divisions in the country. In addition to the primary civilian-military divide, there were also internecine squabbles on both sides. Furthermore, the country’s economy was in crisis, which also fomented discontent among the general population. There were multiple instances of coup plotting or attempted coups during the transition period, including one attempt on September 21, 2021, launched by Bashir loyalists. The military subdued the coup action but also laid blame for the attempt at the feet of the civilian leaders, whom they deemed ineffective, and called for them to be replaced. Civilian leaders accused the military of using the attempted coup as an excuse to try to secure more positions of power in the transitional government. They also reiterated the need to restructure the military, review its business interests, and bring them under civilian oversight—propositions not popular with many in the military. Thus, the level of tension between the military and civilian leaders, which had already been simmering at dangerous levels, further increased in the aftermath of the coup attempt. Several protests were held in October, with some demonstrators calling for the military to oust the civilian leaders while still more called for the military to respect civilian rule and the democratic transition. Amid the rising tensions, the time for the military to hand over leadership of the Sovereignty Council to a civilian, per the terms of the 2019 power-sharing agreement, grew near.
On October 25 the military launched a coup with the backing of Burhan and other top military officials. Hamdok and other cabinet ministers were arrested. Burhan dissolved the Sovereignty Council, declared a state of emergency, and pledged to hold new elections in July 2023. In Khartoum, Omdurman, and other locations across the country, protesters rallied against the coup, and several civil and professional organizations called for strikes and acts of civil disobedience. The next day, Burhan claimed that the military had taken the actions that it had in order to avoid a civil war; those supporting a return to civilian rule were not mollified by his words, and protests—which were sometimes met with deadly violence by security forces—continued. Meanwhile, the military coup was widely condemned on the international stage and jeopardized plans for much-needed aid and debt relief for the country. The AU suspended the country once again. In spite of immense international pressure to reverse the coup, on November 11 Burhan instead formed a new Sovereignty Council, of which he was head. The new council also retained the military members of the previous council, but most former civilian members were replaced.
On November 21 Burhan and Hamdok signed an agreement, based on the 2019 constitutional declaration, that reinstated Hamdok as prime minister while continuing to share power with the military. It provided for Hamdok to form his own government, the release of political detainees, and investigations into the sometimes deadly skirmishes between security forces and those protesting the October coup. The deal was rejected, however, by the FFC and many other groups, who felt betrayed by Hamdok and thought that the new agreement served to legitimize the military’s coup, and protests continued. Hamdok defended his agreement with the military by saying that it was the best option to maintain the economic progress made during the transition and to avoid additional violence and deaths.
Hamdok resigned in January 2022 and Osman Hussein was appointed to replace him. Over the next year, negotiations for the transition to a civilian-led government sputtered along, and in 2023, an important deadline in the transition process had been missed. Meanwhile, a rivalry between Burhan and the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), reached a boiling point, and clashes between Burhan’s military forces and Hemedti’s RSF erupted on April 15, 2023. Fighting continued at several spots throughout the country, including Khartoum. The bloody clashes between the rival sides led to a humanitarian crisis for civilians.