challenges to democracy

challenges to democracy, in contemporary political science and international relations, the problems and threats faced by democratic governments throughout the world in the 21st century.

Contemporary democracy is faced with new and growing challenges. The stability of democratic governments has been threatened in part by their diminished ability to provide encompassing economic security to their citizens. As democratic governments have failed to meet their citizens’ demands, disaffection and skepticism of the value of democracy among citizens has increased. This alienation is reflected in declining voter turnout, opinion polls showing reduced commitment to democratic institutions, increased admiration of authoritarian leaders, and growing vote shares for extremist candidates and parties proposing antidemocratic alternatives. Rising disaffection with democracy has gone hand in hand with increasing support for exclusionary ethnic politics (see below The costs of identity politics).

Democracy works best when governments have incentives to pursue broadly encompassing policies that benefit the citizenry as a whole. This is most likely when political competition is robust and governments can legislate effectively. Diminishing competition between political parties and political fragmentation (which tends to increase with the number of parties in a national legislature) are therefore bad for democracy. A group of legislators will find it easiest to make a collective decision if all of its members have similar preferences. If their preferences differ, they can still manage their disagreements tolerably through negotiation, compromise, and sometimes logrolling (the trading of votes by legislators to secure favourable action on projects of interest to each), so long as none has preferences that are abhorrent to others. Fragmented governments find it harder to enact policies that benefit most people, because they often depend on the support of voters with widely divergent preferences. This in turn reinforces the perception that one group’s gain is another’s loss.

The problem fragmentation poses for democracy is particularly acute when there is substantial political polarization, because, under such circumstances, some people are never willing to accommodate the preferences of others. A majority can outvote a minority in a democracy, but democracies are healthiest when the defeated minority can plausibly look forward to winning elections in the future. Otherwise, the minority will be encouraged to withdraw from democratic competition and pursue antidemocratic alternatives. This is one reason why polarization threatens democracy.

Democracy discourages extremism when it generates centripetal tendencies and encourages competition, but extremism threatens democracy by increasing the costs of regularly alternating governments and removing incentives to wait one’s turn. Those whose preferences will never be satisfied through democratic channels have incentives to pursue their interests through violence if they think they can get away with it.

Rising extremism undermines democracy in another way. Democracy counts on the “loyal opposition” for accountability. When the opposition is not credible (because it is either sufficiently undesirable or widely perceived to be so undesirable as not to be likely to win power), there is no electoral check on the incumbent, and accountability suffers.

The following sections examine the leading contemporary threats to the performance and durability of democratic systems, centring on the sources of the dynamics just described. The discussion here focuses on trends that are secular and cross-national, for the most part setting aside idiosyncratic features of particular systems in order to diagnose the predicaments of developed democracies generally. Some of the major obstacles to democratic performance—and hence to democratic stability—are structural, making them particularly difficult to resolve but also particularly worth understanding.

Economic insecurity and inequality

The survival of democratic regimes hinges above all on citizens’ economic well-being. Democracies endure when they “deliver the goods.” Historically, democracies have always survived as long as citizens’ yearly per capita income has remained above about $16,750 (as measured in 2022 U.S. dollars). Democratic breakdown becomes a concern when per capita income falls below this threshold, and it becomes increasingly likely the farther per capita income falls. There have been exceptions to this generalization—notably, India—but democracy does not usually fare well in poor countries.

Economic inequality also matters, though democracy has sometimes endured along with high and even increasing levels of inequality, as in countries like South Africa and Brazil. The direction of change seems to matter more than absolute levels of inequality. Historically, revolutions and coups have been associated with defeated expectations of rising prosperity. Democracy becomes even more vulnerable when living standards actually fall—as they did in Italy and Germany in the 1920s and ’30s and in Egypt before the military coup in that country in 2013—so that large numbers of people suffer unexpected losses of economic security and social status.

Democracy also does better in broadly diversified economies than in economies that depend on a small number of natural resources. Thus, the “oil curse” affects democracy’s durability, because government leaders who control access to such a lucrative economic sector will be less willing to surrender their authority if there are few alternative sources of income.

The older democracies of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) today face unprecedented economic challenges that threaten democratic stability. The steady decline of manufacturing jobs in these countries since the mid-20th century has resulted in a shift toward service economies and the growth of the white-collar sector. Trade union membership has declined in almost all developed countries, in many cases significantly. Lifetime employment, which was widespread in older democracies a generation ago, has been replaced by a world in which most adults must expect to change jobs multiple times during their working careers, often to lower-status positions with fewer or no employment benefits. Family or household incomes have barely kept pace with inflation, despite the fact that women have entered the labour market in large numbers, with the result that single-earner households have largely been replaced by two-earner households. Relative inequalities between those in the top decile and the rest have grown relentlessly.

Left-of-centre parties have become smaller and weaker as a result of these developments. They have failed to adequately respond to declining industrial employment, enacting policies that protect the interests of a diminishing cadre of workers more than they do the interests of those who have been left behind by deindustrialization, even as precarious employment has proliferated with the rise of independent contractors and zero-hours contracts (i.e., employment contracts that do not guarantee a minimum number of working hours for employees). This in turn has led social democratic parties to hemorrhage support, often to populist parties and politicians who promise quick fixes like immigration bans and trade wars, which produce further disenchantment when they fail to improve conditions. Mainstream parties have fragmented, which makes governing more difficult and compounds the problem of precarity and its political consequences.

As well as changing economic circumstances that sap political support for mainstream political parties, demographic changes have compounded fiscal stress in the older democracies. In most OECD countries, retired populations are growing and working populations are shrinking, as people are living longer than ever before. These developments increase demand for tax revenues to support pension and health care expenses for the elderly at the same time as tax bases shrink, diminishing government revenues. Exacerbating this fiscal stress, the collapse of communism and the advent of an integrated global economy since the 1990s have meant that capital—particularly financial capital—is more mobile than ever before. The perpetual threat of capital flight keeps pressure on governments to limit tax increases.

The mobility of capital creates another political obstacle to taxation: the political influence of the wealthy. The wealthy, by means of their greater financial resources, have disproportionate power to influence the political process through various channels, both licit and illicit. They can make substantial financial contributions to political campaigns. They can finance litigation and engage in advocacy before administrative agencies. They can invest in political advertising, think tanks, and even media organizations, shaping how issues of interest to the public are framed and influencing what issues become part of the political agendas of governments and political parties. Although citizens tend to be more exercised by insecurity than inequality, the resource advantage of the wealthy is one mechanism through which inequality has tangible effects on democratic performance and on the government’s capacity to mitigate the vulnerability of insecure populations. Insecure populations contribute to political turmoil because they often blame existing parties, with varying degrees of justification, for their vulnerability and become available to support antidemocratic candidates.

Economic resources can be divided. This means that competition over them can be managed in various ways. Importantly, economic winners (i.e., the wealthy) can compensate economic losers (i.e., the poor), or at least protect them against severe vulnerability, by supporting social welfare programs and institutions, such as those established in the United States under the New Deal of the 1930s and the Great Society of the 1960s and in western European countries after World War II. The wealthy recognized that it was in their interest to accept—and in some cases to actively support—the redistribution of wealth, partly because there was an alternative system, embodied in the Soviet Union, competing for the hearts and minds of workers in capitalist democracies.

This incentive evaporated with the worldwide collapse of communism in 1989–91 (see collapse of the Soviet Union)—one of the reasons that mainstream parties did so little for their most adversely affected populations in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007–09. A dramatic example was the response to the subprime mortgage crisis (see financial crisis of 2007–08). Western governments, regardless of their ruling party, bailed out banks and other financial institutions while providing relatively little direct assistance to the millions of voters who lost their homes. This in turn contributed to the perception among vulnerable voters that none of the established parties was responding to their plight.

The costs of identity politics

Unlike economic resources, racial, ethnic, or religious identities or affiliations are indivisible goods. Competition over indivisible goods is bad for democracy, because it is much more often zero-sum: one group’s gain is another’s loss. This was a lesson of the religious wars in western Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries and later supplied an impetus to diminish the political power of the church—if not to disestablish it entirely—in modern democracies. Better to get religious groups out of politics than to have them vie for control of the commanding heights of the state. When electoral success hinges on religious, ethnic, or racial appeals, candidates have few incentives to offer broadly encompassing policies, such as those promoting inclusive economic growth and good public services.

At its best, democratic competition institutionalizes a “marketplace of ideas,” encouraging candidates for office to make the strongest case for their proposed policies in order to rally support. Identity politics undermines this aspiration, giving politicians incentives to court supporters along exclusionary sectarian lines. When politicians need only preach to the converted, their incentive to offer powerful arguments rather than to appeal to sectarian loyalties is attenuated. The prominence of identity politics produces a more fragmented, more polarized, and less competitive political environment.

Political mobilization along identitarian lines is a familiar problem in new democracies, which often lack robust traditions of programmatic political competition. Elections all too easily amount to little more than an ethnic census, where the minority has weak incentives to accept results and strong incentives to resort to violence.

Since the late 20th century there has also been a resurgence of identity politics in the older democracies, as political entrepreneurs have found it easy to mobilize alienated voters along ethnic, racial, religious, and cultural lines. This kind of political mobilization tends to be self-reinforcing, because it diverts attention from distributive and other economic matters where bargaining and compromise are possible. This in turn operates to the benefit of those, such as the wealthy, who do well from the status quo and would do less well from competition over matters relating to the distribution or division of material goods.

Structuring politics around identity cleavages can reify and entrench these differences, particularly because it contributes to the erosion of political parties that organize their appeals around unifying programmatic platforms. Across the developed world, the established political organs of the left and right have lost strength and have been eclipsed by new, nativist movements that frequently demonize immigrants and minority groups with ugly rhetoric. In some countries new extremist parties have displaced traditional parties, and in others extremists have co-opted traditional parties. The attrition of traditional parties and their replacement by parties and candidates that run on explicitly racist and xenophobic platforms threatens not just to elevate identity politics on the political stage but also to fan the flames of racial and ethnic antagonism in society broadly.

Identity politics also undermines the benefits of political competition because it is largely symbolic. Political accountability depends on voters’ ability to assess the output that the government delivers and to decide whether to reward or punish incumbents on this basis. But symbolic politics yields few deliverables. When identity politics predominates, voters’ decisions about whether to reward or punish officeholders correspond less to the tangible benefits that officeholders deliver to the electorate and more to how effectively they reinforce voters’ sense of belonging to one or another identity-based group. This can have adverse feedback effects by exacerbating economic insecurity and in turn voters’ disaffection from the political system.

The polarization associated with identity politics undermines support for alternation of governance among political parties, contributing to political instability. In other words, when more of politics is zero-sum, every political faction faces higher costs if it loses in the political process. The identity politics of the right and the identity politics of the left are mutually dependent and mutually reinforcing. In a fragmented political environment where parties represent identity-based groups, it becomes harder for politicians to succeed by offering encompassing programs and more congenial for them to focus on mobilizing their core supporters. Giving up power is more threatening to the interests of current winners, and losers will be more likely to try to seize and hold on to power if they can.

Democracy and clientelism

Institutions of political representation contribute to political fragmentation. In proportional representation (PR) systems fragmentation occurs between parties, and in plurality voting (PV) systems fragmentation occurs within parties. Fragmentation facilitates clientlike relationships between voters and politicians: the latter deliver benefits to particular groups rather than enacting policies that benefit society as a whole. PR gives rise to what one might think of as “wholesale” clientelism, marked by catering to sectional interests at the expense of encompassing social interests, whereas PV, combined with weak political parties, gives rise to “retail” clientelism, where politicians cater to particular financial supporters or to cronies.

PR enables a large number of parties to obtain legislative representation and, to that extent, diminishes parties’ incentive to advance encompassing policies that appeal to a large swathe of the electorate. As a result, parties tend to cater to core supporters. Because they produce political fragmentation, PR systems necessitate coalition governments, which are frequently unwieldy. This unwieldiness has grown since the turn of the 21st century, as the number of parties has increased in almost all PR systems. Accountability also suffers under coalition governments, because no party is unambiguously responsible for the government’s performance. Voters are more likely to support the party that represents their sectional interest, regardless of government performance.

Nor do the platforms parties run on in elections correspond closely with what they do once in power, because coalition negotiations require compromise. And because parties decide on governing coalitions after elections, the extent to which the government reflects popular will is more attenuated than it is when a single party is in power. Which parties succeed in joining the government can be quite arbitrary, and the parties might emanate from a variety of points on the ideological spectrum. As a result, there may be little direct connection between the preferences expressed by voters and the policies enacted by the government that their party has joined.

PV systems—of which the Westminster system (the model of government in the United Kingdom, which has traditionally centred on parliamentary supremacy and the absence of nonelectoral checks on parliamentary authority) is the purest incarnation—confront different challenges. They do not exhibit the interparty fragmentation seen in PR systems, but problems regarding representation are created by the “winner’s bonus” that might disproportionately reward the plurality-vote winner. In a PV system the party receiving the plurality of votes cast in an election typically wins a higher proportion—indeed, often a majority—of seats. Depending on the geographical distribution of voters, the plurality-vote winner may not even win the most legislative seats in a PV system. PV systems may therefore promote decisive governance at the expense of accurate representation of the electorate.

There can also be fragmentation in PV systems, but it occurs inside parties, particularly when they are answerable to subsets of their members or to outside groups that they depend on for money. This weakens parties as institutions of effective governance. Intraparty fragmentation can therefore be exacerbated by institutions like primary elections and by failures to effectively regulate the role of money in politics (see campaign finance and campaign finance laws). Such fragmentation undermines the accountability of government to voters and contributes to gridlock, impeding effective governance.

The United States is an unusual hybrid, wherein a PV system is counterbalanced by government institutions that stifle its advantages. The “American disease,” as some critics of the system have named it, is a profusion of veto points that amplify gridlock. The country has a bicameral system in which the two legislative chambers are governed by different rules and electoral cycles, an independently elected president whose party often does not control at least one of the legislative chambers, independent courts that can strike down duly enacted laws, and a strong federal system that enables state legislatures and governors to frustrate national policies and priorities. The dramatic malapportionment of the U.S. Senate exacerbates the situation by enabling senators representing small minorities of the population to block legislation. These obstacles to effective government dramatically curtail the decisiveness typically associated with PV systems. They also encourage clientelism by requiring more logrolling and horse trading in the legislative process than would otherwise be required. And they advantage wealthy individuals and businesses, which are better able than others to navigate the intricacies of the legislative process as well as its administrative and judicial accompaniments.

Authoritarian threats

Autocracies can pose threats to the healthy operation of democratic regimes. Russia’s role as an important oil supplier to western Europe gives it some leverage over European politics, just as China’s foreign aid gives it influence over many developing countries. More discretely and dramatically, autocracies may seek to influence democratic politics through strategies similar to those used by Russia to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, including spreading disinformation to benefit certain candidates at the expense of others, to foster extreme partisanship and hostility between political factions, and to weaken the public’s faith and trust in democratic institutions. If autocracies proliferate, these kinds of external threats to democratic regimes might increase and become more serious.

Another insidious mechanism for autocratic influence on democracies is ideological. Some political theorists have suggested that the apparent economic success of authoritarian countries like China, Vietnam, and Singapore undermines support for democracy by making alternative models of governance seem attractive. The medium-term viability of their models is debatable, however, because authoritarian systems are highly susceptible to corruption and are notoriously poor at generating accurate information needed for sound decision-making in complex economies over time. Moreover, some of the more successful “Asian tigers” are democracies like Taiwan and South Korea, making it difficult to argue that Chinese economic success depends on an authoritarian governance model.

More typical of authoritarian systems are the old Soviet bloc economies, countries like North Korea, and the African and Middle Eastern autocracies. The better economic performers among them are most often oil producers that reserve the great bulk of their financial gains for tiny elites. Thus, if democracy’s prestige is declining, that trend has more to do with the struggling performance of democratic systems than with the viability of alternatives. This underperformance has fueled admiration within developed democracies for foreign autocrats like Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and for the kind of politics they represent.

Technological developments

Propaganda and other means of manipulating public opinion have always been part of politics, but technological developments in the 21st century have the potential to increase their potency. Internet-based social media was once seen as a potentially liberating technology that would facilitate the rapid spread of information and challenge both repressive regimes and the oligopoly of traditional news media, but today the picture is more mixed. Authoritarian governments have succeeded in tightening control over Internet access, and social media platforms have become vehicles for the spread of disinformation. While control of traditional media platforms remains an important vector for the spread of propaganda, social media also enables the dissemination of disinformation via bottom-up organizations that can circumvent gatekeepers or moderators of traditional platforms. Propaganda can thus be spread cheaply and in high volume, making it difficult to combat.

Recent technological developments also enable more-encompassing forms of surveillance, with implications for political organization. Whether through physical surveillance of their movements or virtual surveillance of their online activities, people are increasingly being monitored and recorded, and they are likely to behave differently when they know that “Big Brother” might be watching. They might refrain from doing things that would result in social censure or other forms of punishment. Of particular concern is the fact that surveillance might subject dissidents to intimidation or retaliation for political activity.

The availability of large amounts of data about citizens also facilitates political manipulation by enabling politicians to segment their messaging with targeted—sometimes even mutually incompatible—appeals to particular demographic groups. This contributes to political fragmentation, further undermining accountability.

There are possible cures for these worrying trends. Public policies can mitigate them through measures aimed at preserving election integrity, freedom of speech, and privacy. Civil society can also mitigate the antidemocratic effects of technology: journalists can act in innovative ways to protect and disseminate accurate information, and new techniques of social media governance can combat the prevalence of disinformation. Innovations in cryptography can enable people to avoid surveillance. On balance, it is too soon to conclude that technological developments pose insuperable challenges to democratic competition. But the problems that they present will likely become more acute, requiring an ongoing search for novel solutions.