Political causes of civil war

Political deprivation, such as colonial subordination or lack of political rights, provides another plausible motivation for resorting to violence. Many conflicts after 1945 first emerged as groups sought to achieve independence for areas under colonial rule. The Indochina wars (1946–75) and the Algerian War of Independence (1954–62) helped to mobilize movements in other countries by showing how overwhelmingly more-powerful colonial powers could be defeated through sustained violent campaigns. Many ethnically distinct groups within empire states such as the Soviet Union and Ethiopia undertook similar struggles of national liberation.

There is little evidence that ethnic diversity itself makes a country more prone to civil conflict. More relevant is the extent to which certain ethnic groups are systematically excluded from political power or discriminated against by the state. Ethnically diverse countries are generally not more prone to conflict if they have inclusive institutions or grant autonomy rights to ethnic groups and if control of the state or access to power does not always follow directly from the relative size of ethnic groups.

Struggles for broader political rights in autocratic regimes provide another context in which violence may occur. Autocratic regimes typically deny citizens room for political activities and often resort to severe repression of protests, which in turn may motivate resort to arms. Protests against autocratic or exclusionary regimes often turn violent and sometimes lead to sustained conflicts, as in South Africa under the apartheid system. Claims for greater political rights and freedom are clearly important elements of the rhetoric of many insurgent movements, even those that do not immediately implement democratic institutions once they have achieved power.

Many scholars have pointed out that, although autocratic institutions provide fewer avenues for nonviolent political activities and protest, autocratic regimes are often repressive enough to deter any significant dissent. Accordingly, regimes that combine autocratic and democratic features are arguably the most prone to violent conflict, because they combine a lack of political freedom with sufficient opportunities for protest, which would be absent under a more repressive regime.

Opportunity structures of civil war

Most of the theories discussed above emphasize structural factors that rarely change or that change only slowly over time. Such persistent structural features do not provide clear explanations for why civil wars break out at specific times and not others. Research on social movements suggests that certain events can create “political opportunity structures” that afford groups better prospects for extracting concessions from the state. Such factors may include demonstrations of state weakness, conflict between elites, or events that make it easier for groups to mobilize—for example, by bringing groups together or indicating focal points for organizing protests. Many existing arguments and findings in civil war research can be interpreted within this framework. Regime change and other signals of weakened state authority can increase the perceived chances of success or extract concessions from a government. Economic crises and natural disasters can also increase the risk of conflict. This is consistent with the idea that crises and emergencies can help provide a setting for rallying protest against the government. For example, the 1973 earthquake in Nicaragua—and the massive corruption and lack of subsequent reconstruction—generated widespread disillusionment and helped a long-standing Marxist insurgency dramatically increase recruitment.

International dimensions of civil war

Factors outside individual countries can play an important role in the outbreak and evolution of civil conflicts. In many civil wars, the participants are not always confined to the countries in which most of the fighting takes place. Ethnic groups often span international boundaries, and transnational kin frequently participate in or provide support for insurgencies in other states. The status of international borders generates different constraints and opportunities for governments and rebels. Borders are, in a technical sense, just lines in the sand and are often not difficult to cross from a purely military perspective. However, the fact that borders formally delineate state sovereignty makes it more difficult for governments to combat insurgencies by rebels based in other states. In addition, the presence of conflict in a neighbouring state can help to facilitate violent mobilization, either through emulation of successful rebellion or through the direct imports of arms and combatants. Finally, civil wars are often closely linked to interstate war. Poor relations between states may motivate governments to support insurgencies in rival countries, and civil wars may in turn promote military conflict between states—for example, as a result of border violations or alleged support for insurgents.