Reconstruction of Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka began to recover from its 26-year civil war during Rajapaksa’s second term. The economy showed sustained growth and reduced poverty levels, though some were concerned about ballooning debt and overreliance on foreign investment, especially from China. The government continued to enjoy the strong support of the country’s large Sinhalese majority, which was reinforced by a string of UPFA victories in provincial council elections in 2012. Rajapaksa’s administration, however, became increasingly associated with strong-arm tactics and other repressive measures against political opponents and various forms of dissent, as he centralized greater power in the executive branch and among his family members. A key development project was an expensive port in his home district of Hambantota, funded by loans from China but which had low returns on investment. In addition, relations with Western countries were strained over allegations of human rights abuses in Sri Lanka and the government’s refusal to allow independent investigations of the military’s treatment of Tamils at the end of the civil war in 2009.

Rajapaksa’s domestic popularity appeared to wane during 2014, as UPFA candidates won by considerably smaller margins in local elections than they had two years earlier. Late in the year he again called for an early presidential election, confident that he would easily win a third term if he held the election ahead of schedule. Unexpectedly, however, one of his cabinet members, Maithripala Sirisena, defected to the opposition and ran against him. Other UPFA members defected as well. In the early January 2015 polling, Sirisena scored an upset victory over Rajapaksa and was sworn in as president.

In April 2015 Parliament amended the constitution to restore the presidential two-term limit that had been removed in 2010. Having won the most seats in parliamentary elections held on August 17, the UNP formed a six-party coalition government. In June 2016, along with acknowledging that some 65,000 people who had gone missing during the civil war remained unaccounted for, the government approved legislation providing for the issuance of certificates of absence to the families with missing relatives, thereby allowing them to finally settle issues of inheritance, guardianship, and other related matters.

Growing debt and instability

The country’s enormous debt led to a balance-of-payments crisis in 2016. The government arranged a $1.5 billion bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and set out to increase its tax revenue. It continued to have difficulty paying its debt, however, and found itself falling more indebted to China. In 2017 Sri Lanka leased its newly built Hambantota port to China for 99 years, and in 2018 it accepted a $1 billion loan from China to help repay maturing loans.

As the economy struggled to sustain growth amid the debt crisis and as political tensions brewed, Sirisena fired his prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, and appointed Rajapaksa in his place in October 2018. Wickremesinghe charged the move as unconstitutional and refused to step down. When it became clear in early November that Rajapaksa did not have Parliament’s support, Sirisena attempted to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections. Days later the move was suspended by the Supreme Court until it could rule on the legality of Sirisena’s action, thus allowing Parliament to convene and pass two votes of no confidence against Rajapaksa. The votes were rejected by Rajapaksa and his allies, and he continued to argue that he was the legitimate prime minister. After the Supreme Court ruled in early December that Sirisena could not dissolve Parliament, Rajapaksa stepped down to avoid further stalemate, and Sirisena reappointed Wickremesinghe.

Months later the country was shaken by its worst violence since the civil war. On April 21, 2019—Easter morning—eight explosions occurred in the vicinity of churches and hotels, leaving hundreds dead and hundreds more wounded. Another blast occurred near a church the next day, while other explosive devices were discovered and neutralized before being detonated. Authorities, who had been warned about the attack about two weeks in advance, identified a little-known Islamist militant group as the orchestrator of the attacks. The manner and sophistication of the attacks, however, suggested involvement from international networks. In the days that followed, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL; also called ISIS) claimed responsibility, though the waning organization offered no evidence of its direct involvement.

Ascent of the Rajapaksas and economic collapse

As the presidential election approached later that year, Sri Lankans were cognizant of the outgoing government’s ineffectiveness in addressing the debt crisis, its political instability, and its inability to prevent the Easter attacks. For many Sinhalese, Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother Gotabaya offered a promise of progress, stability, and security. In November Gotabaya was elected to the presidency along ethno-religious lines—he lacked support from Tamil and Muslim voters, who were fearful of restoring to power a family known for its brutality in the civil war. Days after taking office, Gotabaya appointed Mahinda to be prime minister.

The following week, the government announced steep and sweeping tax cuts, fulfilling a campaign promise that was intended to spur investment and provide relief. But the timing of the tax cuts, on the eve of a pandemic that disrupted investment worldwide, proved poor.

As the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic spread throughout the globe in 2020, Sri Lanka reported much lower rates of infection and death than other South Asian countries, thanks to its quick and aggressive action, including an early nationwide lockdown and a high rate of testing. The legislative elections, originally slated for April, were delayed until August. When they were finally held with precautions in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19—voters were asked to bring their own pen with which to mark their ballots, for example—the SLPP, the party of the Rajapaksas, won just under two-thirds of the parliamentary seats. The results allowed the SLPP and its allies to amend the constitution to expand the powers of the presidency. But, while the government saw early success in handling the spread of COVID-19, the outbreak of the Delta variant in 2021 led to a massive surge in cases in May—and again in August.

Meanwhile, in May 2021 the government banned the importation of chemical fertilizers and pesticides but gave little warning to farmers. The sudden change led to a steep decline in crop production and a run on markets, placing further strain on a debt-laden economy already aggravated by the pandemic. The ban was subsequently lifted in November.

But the country was now in far worse straits than a mere debt crisis. Apart from food shortages and rapid inflation, the deficit had ballooned, owing to the 2019 tax cuts. As fuel prices skyrocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the government implemented daily power outages. Protests broke out in March and continued to escalate in the following weeks. In early April the Rajapaksas attempted to reshuffle the cabinet: family members relinquished their ministerial positions, and the opposition was invited to join. But the opposition, calling for the Rajapaksas to be replaced altogether, appeared to gain the upper hand as members of the ruling coalition defected.

Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned as prime minister in May, and Wickremesinghe was appointed in his place. Protesters were not satisfied, however, and continued to call on Gotabaya Rajapaksa to relinquish the presidency. On July 9 protesters stormed the presidential palace and began occupying it. Shortly afterward Wickremesinghe announced his intention to resign, and his own residence was later set on fire. President Rajapaksa remained unheard from, and his whereabouts were unknown, but the parliament speaker claimed that the president planned to resign within days. On July 13 he fled the country, and Wickremesinghe became acting president in his absence.