The Ma Ying-jeou presidency

In 2008 the KMT won both the presidential and legislative elections by big margins. Ma Ying-jeou, a former mayor of Taipei and once the minister of justice, was elected president. Ma, who had a law degree from Harvard University and a reputation for being the cleanest of Taiwan’s political elite, was respected and popular. During the campaign he had pledged good economic growth, better ethnic relations, clean government, and cordial relations with mainland China and the United States.

The U.S. government was indeed very pleased with Ma as president, principally because he reduced tensions in the Taiwan Strait by pursuing cordial relations with Beijing rather than provoking its leaders. In the process, the Taiwan Strait was downgraded from its former status as the foremost flash point in the world (defined as the place where a conflict between two powers—in this case the United States and mainland China—might involve the use of weapons of mass destruction). Beijing was also pleased, and it set in motion policies to dramatically improve relations with Taiwan.

However, in 2009 Taiwan fell victim to the worldwide recession, which caused negative economic growth on the island. Also that year a devastating tropical cyclone, Typhoon Morakot, hit Taiwan, and nearly 500 people were killed or listed as missing. Ma espoused the position that responding to the tragedy was largely local governments’ responsibility. The public, however, was ultimately dissatisfied with the response of Ma’s government, and Ma’s popularity plummeted as a result.

Meanwhile, the opposition, in a state of shock and disarray after its two election defeats in early 2008, began to make a comeback under the leadership of Tsai Ing-wen, a former vice-premier. She moderated DPP policies, improved party morale, and oversaw some wins in local and replacement elections.

In 2010 Ma’s approval ratings rose in public opinion polls, buoyed by very impressive improvements in Taiwan’s economic growth. Ma was able to negotiate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with mainland China, which reduced tariffs on the mainland’s and Taiwan’s exports to each other. It was the first in a series of economic and financial agreements concluded between Taiwan and the mainland over several years that continued to build economic ties between the two.

In 2011 Taiwan observed the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China, but by then economic growth had fallen off sharply, helping to fuel mounting discontent among voters. Nonetheless, in January 2012 Ma won a second presidential term, easily defeating the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen. Moreover, the KMT retained a majority in the legislature, despite losing 17 seats in the election. Tsai took responsibility for her electoral loss and resigned as the head of the DPP.

However, Ma’s popularity, and that of the KMT, went into decline as the economy continued to stagnate, complaints of poor governance mounted, and public unease grew over Taiwan’s increasingly close relations with mainland China, which many saw as endangering Taiwan’s sovereignty. A more general explanation of the decline is that Ma and the KMT’s brand of elitist moral leadership had waned and was overwhelmed by the DPP’s populism.

Popular protest movements grew at that time, including nearly a monthlong occupation of the Legislative Yuan by a student-led group seeking to block the legislature from ratifying a trade agreement with Beijing. Tsai was reelected chair of the DPP in 2014, and in elections that year DPP candidates ousted several incumbent KMT mayors, including those in the special municipalities of Taipei, T’ai-chung, and T’ao-yüan.

The elections constituted a major victory for the DPP and a serious setback for the KMT. The outcome mirrored further deterioration in the image of President Ma and the KMT, Tsai Ing-wen’s adroit leadership of the DPP, the continued rise of populism, the appeal of the DPP and its good candidates at the local level, and voters’ concerns over growing economic inequality and increasing dependence on mainland China. Many observers viewed the outcome as a signal that the DPP would win the national presidential and legislative elections in January 2016.

Toward the end of Ma’s presidency, in November 2015, he met with Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping, the first-ever encounter between the heads of the two governments. While Ma’s diplomatic effort did not, according to opinion polls taken at the time, influence how voters might cast their ballots in the upcoming election, it was viewed favourably by many observers. It reinforced Ma’s earlier initiatives to find a solution to the dispute between mainland China and Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu in Chinese) Islands in the North China Sea, which involved Taiwan. It also laid the groundwork for dealing with later tensions over opposing territorial claims in the South China Sea, where mainland China was building up islands and expanding its activities and Taiwan also had an interest. Ma’s proposals were applauded in the United States and elsewhere, thereby enhancing his reputation as a diplomat and peacemaker.