Theoretical climate models

Theoretical models of Earth’s climate system can be used to investigate the response of climate to external radiative forcing as well as its own internal variability. Two or more models that focus on different physical processes may be coupled or linked together through a common feature, such as geographic location. Climate models vary considerably in their degree of complexity. The simplest models of energy balance describe Earth’s surface as a globally uniform layer whose temperature is determined by a balance of incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation. These simple models may also consider the effects of greenhouse gases. At the other end of the spectrum are fully coupled, three-dimensional, global climate models. These are complex models that solve for radiative balance; for laws of motion governing the atmosphere, ocean, and ice; and for exchanges of energy and momentum within and between the different components of the climate. In some cases, theoretical climate models also include an interactive representation of Earth’s biosphere and carbon cycle.

Even the most-detailed climate models cannot resolve all the processes that are important in the atmosphere and ocean. Most climate models are designed to gauge the behaviour of a number of physical variables over space and time, and they often artificially divide Earth’s surface into a grid of many equal-sized “cells.” Each cell may neatly correspond to some physical process (such as summer near-surface air temperature) or other variable (such as land-use type), and it may be assigned a relatively straightforward value. So-called “sub-grid-scale” processes, such as those of clouds, are too small to be captured by the relatively coarse spacing of the individual grid cells. Instead, such processes must be represented through a statistical process that relates the properties of the atmosphere and ocean. For example, the average fraction of cloud cover over a hypothetical “grid box” (that is, a representative volume of air or water in the model) can be estimated from the average relative humidity and the vertical temperature profile of the grid cell. Variations in the behaviour of different coupled climate models arise in large part from differences in the ways sub-grid-scale processes are mathematically expressed.

Despite these required simplifications, many theoretical climate models perform remarkably well when reproducing basic features of the atmosphere, such as the behaviour of midlatitude jet streams or Hadley cell circulation. The models also adequately reproduce important features of the oceans, such as the Gulf Stream. In addition, models are becoming better able to reproduce the main patterns of internal climate variability, such as those of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consequently, periodically recurring events—such as ENSO and other interactions between the atmosphere and ocean currents—are being modeled with growing confidence.

Climate models have been tested in their ability to reproduce observed changes in response to radiative forcing. In 1988 a team at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City used a fairly primitive climate model to predict warming patterns that might occur in response to three different scenarios of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Warming patterns were forecast for subsequent decades. Of the three scenarios, the middle one, which corresponds most closely to actual historical carbon emissions, comes closest to matching the observed warming of roughly 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) that has taken place since then. The NASA team also used a climate model to successfully predict that global mean surface temperatures would cool by about 0.5 °C for one to two years after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

More recently, so-called “detection and attribution” studies have been performed. These studies compare predicted changes in near-surface air temperature and other climate variables with patterns of change that have been observed for the past one to two centuries (see below). The simulations have shown that the observed patterns of warming of Earth’s surface and upper oceans, as well as changes in other climate phenomena such as prevailing winds and precipitation patterns, are consistent with the effects of an anthropogenic influence predicted by the climate models. In addition, climate model simulations have shown success in reproducing the magnitude and the spatial pattern of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere between roughly 1400 and 1850—during the Little Ice Age, which appears to have resulted from a combination of lowered solar output and heightened explosive volcanic activity.