Continuing challenges: conflict, a stalled economy, and nuclear tests

Nevertheless, Nawaz Sharif’s successful power plays were minimized by his failure to halt the sustained ethnic conflict in Karachi and Sind, the sectarian bloodshed that had broken out in the North-West Frontier Province, and the tribal struggle for greater autonomy in Balochistan. All of these conflicts had escalated throughout his time in office. Moreover, the government could arrest radicals and others accused of perpetuating the general disorder, but it could not bring an end to civil strife—and it certainly could not act without the services provided by the army.

Sharif also had to confront an economy in shambles, and serious consideration was given to selling public assets (e.g., power stations, telecommunications, airlines, banks, and railroads) to meet obligations on the ever-growing foreign debt. Indeed, Sharif’s interest in a form of “supply side” economic reorganization and privatization was not the sought-after remedy.

Despite these failures, however, by 1998 Nawaz Sharif had amassed more power than any previous elected civilian government in Pakistan. The country was a long way from achieving real growth, however, and the continuing reluctance to allow for a loyal opposition made a mockery of the regime’s democratic goals. The PML-N leader used his influence to implement “Program 2010,” which centred attention on education reform, the launching of public service committees, and the opening of new employment opportunities. However, the prime minister’s economic program came to nothing when the countries that had been expected to provide the funding for the different ventures withdrew their offers after Pakistan detonated a series of nuclear devices in May 1998.

News of the nuclear tests sent distress signals throughout the world, and concerns only intensified with Pakistan’s growing instability and the likelihood that nuclear weapons, technology, or materials could be transferred, sold, or leaked to other countries or groups (indeed, in 2004 Abdal Qadir Khan, the head of Pakistan’s nuclear program, admitted to sharing weapons technology with several countries, including Iran, North Korea, and Libya). In the final analysis, Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons did little to address the social and political unrest in the country, and it was hardly a boon to the national economy or to Sharif’s political future.

Growing unrest, tension with the military, and Sharif’s ouster

Confronted with growing unrest, much of it directed against his rule, Sharif proclaimed a state of emergency, which enabled him to rule the country by ordinance and special decrees. He also made closer alliances with the orthodox Islamic groups (e.g., the Islamic Assembly) and seemed to placate the religious divines by adopting additional Islamic laws (e.g., its punishment for adultery). A proposed 15th amendment to the constitution, establishing Islamic law as the basis of all governance, was never fully ratified, but Pakistan’s Federal Shariat Court, instituted during the Zia years, was given greater latitude in meting out Islamic justice.

The prime minister’s autocratic behaviour only intensified local and provincial resistance. The PPP and a number of smaller parties formed the Pakistan Awami Itehad, but it was not clear how they expected to challenge the administration. Moreover, the government had muzzled the press and ignored virtually all constitutional constraints, and administration expenditures had gone unchecked, as profligate spending on the regime’s pet projects caused more severe economic dislocation. With ethnic strife continuing unabated, Pakistan’s army chief of staff, Gen. Jehangir Karamat, spoke for a frustrated public when he appeared to indicate the country was teetering at the abyss. However, Karamat’s role in the political process angered Nawaz Sharif, and in October 1998 the prime minister pressured the army high command into forcing the general’s early retirement. Karamat was quickly and quietly replaced by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a muhajir (post-partition immigrant) whom Sharif believed would be more compliant as well as apolitical.

Military leaders were now even more convinced that Sharif was attempting to politicize the army, but the army also had other concerns. In mid-1999 the conflict over the Kashmir region flared again, when fighting broke out with Indian forces in the high mountains of the Kargil region. The prime minister, sensing danger, made a hurried trip to Washington and appeared to yield to U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton’s suggestion that Pakistani forces pull back from the contested area. However, Pakistan’s generals opposed a retreat strategy, believing that the advantages favoured their forces. Most important, General Musharraf vehemently defended and stood with his fellow officers, and the impression circulated that the generals were planning to challenge Sharif’s powers. Sharif, only now realizing he had made the wrong choice to head the army, set in motion a plan to replace Musharraf with another general. Musharraf, however, had the support of his fellow officers and, unlike Karamat, had no intention of yielding his position. The resulting Kargil War (May–July 1999) left several hundred combatants dead from each country.

On October 12, 1999, Sharif attempted to oust Musharraf while the general was out of the country, but other generals thwarted the plot and arrested Sharif. On his return to Pakistan that same day, Musharraf announced the dissolution of the Sharif government and the suspension of the constitution. Although the action was clearly a coup d’état, Musharraf did not declare martial law, and he stated that fundamental rights guaranteed by the constitution were to be preserved and that all laws other than the constitution would continue in force unless altered by military authority. Musharraf nevertheless did declare a Proclamation of Emergency, and on October 14 he announced that Pres. Mohammad Rafique Tarar would remain in office, while the national and state legislatures would be suspended. The country’s courts would continue operating with the limitation that the justices not interfere with any order coming from the chief executive—as Musharraf at first styled himself. Moreover, Provisional Constitution Order No. 1 of 1999 specified that the president could only act in accordance with and with the advice of the chief executive.